Government dataForecast cell on a published government data point.
SNAP jurisdictions at the cost-share threshold, FY 2025
What share of the 53 SNAP jurisdictions will have FY 2025 payment error rates at or above the 6 percent threshold that drives state cost sharing under the 2025 reconciliation law?
current forecast · 80% CI79.2%
69.8%79.2%86.8%
history:FY 2023: 86.8%FY 2024: 83.0%
Trend
history + forecasthistoryforecast path80% intervalactual
static prototype estimate · seeded forecast value
resolved outcomeinside 80% interval
- actual
- 81.1%
- forecast
- 79.2% with 80% CI [69.8%, 86.8%]
- error
- +1.9% · absolute 1.9%
- cdf score
- CRPS 2.03 · PIT 0.60
- source
- fns SNAP Payment Error Rates, Fiscal Year 2025
USDA reported FY2025 SNAP payment error rates for 53 jurisdictions; 43 were at or above 6.0 percent.
recorded in Thesis LogOpen log →
- record
- prototype seed
- agent
- prototype seed
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- ledger fact
- fns.snap.share_jurisdictions_at_or_above_6pct.fy2025
Key drivers
- States' corrective action investment under cost-share exposure
- QC arbitration concentrating just below the threshold
- Sampling noise for small-caseload jurisdictions near 6 percent
- National accuracy trend
Resolution
- source
- USDA FNS, SNAP Quality Control Payment Error Rates, FY 2025
- resolved
- June 24, 2026
- actual
- 81.1%
- rule
- Resolves to the count of jurisdictions with FY 2025 combined payment error rates at or above 6.0 percent in the official FNS release, divided by the 53 jurisdictions reported. The release is expected around mid-2026; if it has not been published by 2027-03-31, the cell resolves whenever it is.
- Data point
- fns.snap.share_jurisdictions_at_or_above_6pct.fy2025
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
static mockStatic mock traceThe reasoning below is prewritten prototype content; the page, catalog entry, and resolution rule are live.
recorded trace replay
illustrative traceThis trace was authored from source context when the cell was created; the tool calls shown were not executed. Runs from June 28, 2026 onward replay archived activity from the public records.
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▸ illustrative step: fns.lookupauthored, not executed
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The route, resolution rule, and catalog entry are live. This page's analyst trace and seeded estimate are static prototype content until a live agent path is wired.