US nursing-home total nurse staffing HPRD, July 2026 first print
What will the NATION row value for Reported Total Nurse Staffing Hours per Resident per Day be in CMS Care Compare State US Averages at the July 2026 first print?
Trend
history + forecastthesis.analyst · 2026-07-21T01:37:06Z
- actual
- 3.86
- forecast
- 3.92 with 80% CI [3.84, 4.00]
- error
- -0.06 · absolute 0.06
- cdf score
- CRPS 0.035 · PIT 0.20
- source
- cms_provider_data Nursing home Care Compare provider data, State US Averages (NH_StateUSAverages)
First print for 2026-07 captured from https://data.cms.gov/provider-data/sites/default/files/resources/dbae3e97981fb7c29a3fdb15da6e6f12_1784297731/NH_StateUSAverages_Jul2026.csv: the CMS provider-data metastore's modified date placed the live NH_StateUSAverages file inside the 2026-07 refresh window at capture, and the file's own Processing Date column agreed.
- record
- July 21, 2026
- agent
- thesis.analyst
- distribution
- 201 CDF points
- model
- gpt-5.5
- ledger fact
- cms.nursing_home_compare.reported_total_nurse_staffing_hprd_us.2026-07.first_print
Key drivers
- latest public national average near 3.9 HPRD
- slow upward drift in fetched national staffing anchors
- July refresh rolls staffing measures onto the next PBJ quarter
- federal staffing policy pressure is gradual rather than a discrete July step
Resolution
- source
- CMS Care Compare nursing home provider data, State US Averages file (NH_StateUSAverages), NATION row, Reported Total Nurse Staffing Hours per Resident per Day
- resolved
- July 29, 2026
- actual
- 3.86
- rule
- Resolve to the NATION row value of 'Reported Total Nurse Staffing Hours per Resident per Day' in the first NH_StateUSAverages file CMS posts at the Care Compare refresh scheduled for 2026-07-29 (the July 2026 quarterly staffing update; schedule per the dataset metastore next-update field), rounded to three decimals. The refresh carries nurse staffing measures onto the next Payroll-Based Journal quarter. If CMS posts the refresh on a different calendar day, resolve to the first file posted at that refresh; ignore later monthly refreshes and revisions.
- Data point
- cms.nursing_home_compare.reported_total_nurse_staffing_hprd_us.2026-07.first_print
Analyst agent · reasoning trace
recorded agent run§
This page shows a recorded agent run: the prediction was generated by an agent using current official source context, then saved into Thesis Log with its distribution, resolution rule, and trace.